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Bigger Cost of Living Adjustment Predicted for 2027

The Social Security Administration adjusts payments every year based on what they calculate is necessary to keep pace with inflation. As you probably know, inflation is the constant depreciation in the value of currency as a result of spending and “printing” by the Fed. Some call it a hidden tax while others call it the cost of doing business.

COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) is calculated yearly and applied to payment amounts. In 2024 that adjustment was 3.4%. Last year it was 2.5%. And this year it was 2.8%. Now, experts are coming to the conclusion that next year that number could be as high as 3.9%, the largest since 2023.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates that the average Social Security benefits check for retired workers would rise by $81.17, up from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33.

TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said “Many seniors are telling us the same thing: As inflation picks back up, life still does not feel affordable. The average senior already lives on much less than younger Americans, according to the Census Bureau, and our supporters constantly tell us they feel like they’re falling farther and farther behind.”

A report from TSCL states that energy costs are the main culprit, mainly the elevated price of oil this year. Oil prices affect almost every industry, and this drives up prices on all products and services.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) is making estimates which are basically the same as the TSCL. They predict a 2.8% COLA increase in Social Security benefit payments.

In their report, the CRFB stated “If the recent spike in inflation boosts the COLA to 3.8% without increasing wages, we estimate it would worsen Social Security’s shortfall by roughly $300 billion over the next decade and advance the insolvency of the old age trust fund by three months from late 2032 to earlier in the year.”

It is a consensus among most analysts of the current system that if major reforms aren’t made to the system, that there is likely to be a drastic cut in payments on or around the year 2032. These reductions could be as much as 25% and wipe out a decade’s worth of COLA increases.

Historical Cost of Living Adjustments (Last 25 Years)

The list below tracks every official Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) implemented over the last 25 years.
2026: 2.8%
2025: 2.5%
2024: 3.2%
2023: 8.7%
2022: 5.9%
2021: 1.3%
2020: 1.6%
2019: 2.8%
2018: 2.0%
2017: 0.3%
2016: 0.0%
2015: 1.7%
2014: 1.5%
2013: 1.7%
2012: 3.6%
2011: 0.0%
2010: 0.0%
2009: 5.8%
2008: 2.3%
2007: 3.3%
2006: 4.1%
2005: 2.7%
2004: 2.1%
2003: 1.4%
2002: 2.6%